[Home ] [Archive]   [ فارسی ]  
:: Main :: About :: Current Issue :: Archive :: Search :: Submit :: Contact ::
:: Volume 25, Issue 1 (Iranian South Medical Journal 2022) ::
Iran South Med J 2022, 25(1): 50-79 Back to browse issues page
Strategies for the Future of Medicine in Iran Based on a Scenario Planning
Masomeh Jorjani1 , Seyed Hassan Moghaddamnia2, Majid Assadi3, Hossien Ghanbari4, Majid Fasihi Harandi5, Iraj Nabipour 6
1- Neurobiology Research Center and Department of Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Department of Medical Education, Academy of Medical Sciences of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, Iran
2- Department of Basic Sciences, Academy of Medical Sciences of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, Iran
3- The Persian Gulf Nuclear Medicine Research Center, The Persian Gulf Biomedical Research Institute, Bushehr University of Medical Sciences, Bushehr, Iran 5
4- Department of Medical Nanotechnology, School of Advanced Technologies in Medicine, TUMS, Italia Street, Tehran, Iran
5- Department of Parasitology and Mycology, School of Medicine, Kerman University of Medical Sciences
6- Future Studies Group, The Academy of Medical Sciences of the I.R.Iran
The Persian Gulf Marine Biotechnology Research Center, The Persian Gulf Biomedical Research Institute, Bushehr University of Medical Sciences, Bushehr, Iran , inabipour@gmail.com
Abstract:   (595 Views)
Background: The rapid and increasing growth of technology in the artificial intelligence era and its impact on fundamentals changes in the development of science including biomedicine and health presents a need for the future studies in medical sciences. This project is striving to provide a desirable model based on authentic forecasting models in order to clarify the probable and uncertain futures of medicine and health in Iran, with their complexities. 
Methods: The Jay Ogilvy’s eight steps scenario planning and strategic forecasting was engaged in a five phases model including the identification approach (phase 1) for detection of paradigms in medicine; the extrapolation approach (phase 2) for detection of megatrends and key technologies in medicine and healthcare; the convergence approach (phase 3) for discovering of critical uncertainties and achieving to the logic of scenario; the creative approach (phase 4) for composition of the scenario and technology roadmap; the policy making approach (phase 5) for planning of strategies and tactics.
Results: In the first phase, it was revealed that the realm of medicine is under a huge disruption and the current medicine is going to systems medicine with precision medicine in its scope. In the second phase, it was clarified that the convergence of knowledge, technology and society (CKTS) is a megatrend that drives medical sciences to “deep medicine”. In the third phase, it was unfolded that CKTS and “deep medicine” including deep phenotyping of the patient using multiple omics technologies are cardinal key points that not realization of their goals in Iran would lead to a deep and critical gap in advanced and updated medicine and healthcare between Iran and the developed countries. In the fourth phase, four possible scenarios for the future of medicine and healthcare in Iran were described in which the ideal scenario would be flourishing of deep medicine along CKTS. In the fifth phase, three strategies were developed in order to realize the ideal scenario including 1/ the establishment of knowledge regions, mediated by universities; 2/ moving toward digital health and artificial intelligence; 3/ driving forces for precision medicine
Conclusion: The establishment of infrastructures and preparedness for realizing precision medicine and moving toward digital health and artificial intelligence are crucial strategies to achieve the ideal future of medicine in Iran. These important issues should be considered as national priorities by policy makers and programmers in the realm of medical sciences.
Keywords: forecasting, converging technologies, precision medicine, digital health, scenario planning, deep medicine, systems medicine
Full-Text [PDF 1364 kb]   (148 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Original | Subject: Futurology
Received: 2022/02/26 | Accepted: 2022/03/6 | Published: 2022/03/13
1. Nabipour I. The Technology Forecasting: A Tool For Holistic Sustainable Development. Bushehr: Bushehr University Of Medical Sciences Press 2011, 9. (Persian)
2. Godet F. Future Memories. Technol Forecast Soc Change 2010; 77(9): 1457-63.
3. United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). Foresight as a Policy-making Tool. In: Nyiri L, editor. Technology Foresight for Organizers. 1st ed. Ankara: Technol Foresight Initiative, 2003, A1-A16.
4. Futures and Foresight. Parliamentary office of Science and Technology. (Accessed March 8, 2020, at https://www.parliament.uk/ globalassets/documents/post/postpn332.pdf)
5. Skumanich M, Silbernagel M. Foresighting Around the World: A Review of Seven BestIn-Kind Programs. Chapter 2. (Accessed March 8, 2020, at https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2.1_Foresight_in_governments.pdf)
6. UNDP. Foresight Manual -United Nations Development Programme. (Accessed March 8, 2020, at https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/p ublications/UNDP_ForesightManual_2018.pdf)
7. The World Conversion :union: (IUCN). The Future of Sustainability: Re-Thinking Environment and Development in the Twenty-first Century. (Accessed March 8, 2020, at https://www.globalnature.org/bausteine.net/f/6379/iucn_future_of_sustanability.pdf?fd=2)
8. Postma TJBM, Liebl F. How To Improve Scenario Analysis as a Strategic Management Tool?. Technol Forecast Soc Change 2005; 72(2): 161-73.
9. Foster MJ. Scenario Planning For Small Business. Long Rang Plan 1993; 26(1): 123-9.
10. The Future of BioSciences: Four Scenarios for 2020 and Beyond. (Accessed March 8, 2020, at http://www.thinkdsi.com/pdfs/Biosciences ReportHighlights.pdf)
11. Tait J. OECD International Futures Project on “The Bioeconomy to 2030: Designing a Policy Agenda”. 2007. (Accessed March 8, 2020, at https://www.oecd.org/futures/long-termtechnologicalsocietalchallenges/thebioeconomyto2030designingapolicyagenda.htm)
12. Biomedicine and Health Innovation - Synthesis Report. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2010. (Accessed March 8, 2022, at https://www.oecd.org/sti/emerging-tech/biomedicineandhealthinnovation-synthesisreport.htm)
13. A Strategy for UK Regenerative Medicine. 2012. (Accessed May 28, 2015, at http://www.mrc.ac.uk/news-events/publications/regenerative-medicine-strategypdf/)
14. Clark J. Five Futures For Academic Medicine: The ICRAM Scenarios. BMJ 2005; 331(7508): 101-4.
15. The Future Of Healthcare In Europe. Economist Intelligence Unit. The Economist, 2011.
16. Primary Care 2025: A Scenario Exploration. Institute for Alternative Futures, 2012. (Accessed March 8, 2022, at http://www. altfutures.org/pubs/pc2025/IAF-PrimaryCare2025Scenarios.pdf)
17. Lueddeke GR. Transforming Medical Education for the 21st Century: Megatrends, Priorities and Change. Radcliffe Pub, 2012.
18. Hayes R. Our biopolitical future. California, USA: World Watch Institute, 2007.
19. Ogilvy J. Scenario Planning and Strategic Forecasting. 2015. (Accessed May 28, 2015, at http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/)
20. Schwartz P. The art of the long view. New York: Currency Doubleday, 1996.
21. Garvin DA, Levesque LC. A Note on Scenario Planning. Harvard Business School 2005; 306(003): 1-10.
22. Bood RP, Postma TJBM. Scenario Analysis As A Strategic Management Tool. In Research Report Series Of University Of Groningen, 1998.
23. Schoemaker PJH. When And How To Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach With Illustration. J Forcast 1991; 10(6): 549-64.
24. Scearce D, Fulton K, Global Business Network community. What if? The art of scenario thinking for nonprofits. 2004. (Accessed March 8, 2022, at https://community-wealth.org/content/what-if-artscenario-thinking-nonprofits)
25. Nabipour I, Assadi M. The Future Of Medicin, Systems Medicine, P4. Bushehr: Bushehr University of Medical Sciences Press, 2014. (Persian)
26. Hood L, Balling R, Auffray C. Revolutionizing Medicine In The 21st Century Through Systems Approaches. Biotechnol J 2012; 7(8): 992-1001.
27. Nabipour I, Assadi M. Precision Medicine, An Approach For Development Of The Future Medicine Technologies. Iran South Med J 2016; 19(1): 167-84. (Persian)
28. Nabipour I. The Precision Medicine. Bushehr: Bushehr University Of Medical Sciences Press, 2017, 9-48. (Persian)
29. Topol E. Deep Medicine. Translated By Iraj Nabipour. Bushehr: Bushehr University Of Medical Sciences Press, 2019, 28, 222. (Persian)
30. Schwartz WB. Medicine And The Computer- The Promise And Problems Of Change. N Engl J Med 1970; 283(23): 1257-640.
31. Rajkomar A, Dean J, Kohane I. Machine Learning In Medicine. N Engl J Med 2019; 380(14): 1347-58.
32. Roco MC, Bainbridge WS. The New World Of Discovery, Invention, And Innovation: Convergence Of Knowledge, Technology, And Society. J Nanopart Res 2013; 15: 1-17.
33. Beckert B, Bluemel C, Friedewald M. Visions And Realities In Converging Technologies: Exploring The Technology Base For Convergence. Innovation 2007; 20(4): 375-94.
34. Nabipour I. The Knowledge region. Bushehr: Bushehr University and Medical Sciences Press, 2015. (Persian)
35. European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Precision medicine, targeted scenario n°14 : glimpses of the future from the BOHEMIA study, ublications Office, 2018, (Accessed March 9, 2022, at https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2777/32392)
36. Gong H. Innovation Ecosystems for Precision Medicine Implementation. Wharton Research Scholars. 2020. (Accessed March 9, 2022, at https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1212&context=wharton_research_scholars)
37. World Economic Forum (2018). Precision Medicine and Policy Summit Insight Report. (Accessed March 9, 2022, at http://www.sps.tsinghua.edu.cn/uploadfile/2018/1211/PrecisionMedicinePolicySummitReport.PDF)
38. Qoronfleh MW, Chouchane L, Mifsud B, et al. The Future Of, Healthcare Innovation Through Precision Medicine: Policy Case Study Of Qatar. Life Sci Soc Policy 2020; 16: 12.
39. Denny JC, Collins FS. Precision Medicine In 2030-Seven Ways To Transform Healthcare. Cell 2021; 184(6): 1415-9.
40. Efpia. Unlocking the potential of precision medicine in Europe – Improving cancer care through broader access to quality biomarker testing. (Accessed March 9, 2022, at https://www.efpia.eu/news-events/the-efpiaview/statements-press-releases/unlocking-the-potential-of-precision-medicine-in-europe-improving-cancer-care-through-broader-access-to-quality-biomarker-testing/)
41. Johnson KB, Wei WQ, Weeraratne D, et al. Precision Medicine, AI, and the Future of Personalized Health Care. Clin Transl Sci 2021; 14(1): 86-93.
42. Nadauld LD, Ford JM, Pritchard D, et al. Strategies For Clinical Implementation: Precision Oncology At Three Distinct Institutions. Health Aff (Millwood) 2018; 37(5): 751-6.
43. PMC (2018). The Personalized Medicine Report. Opportunity, Challenges, and the Future. (Accessed March 9, 2022, at https://www.personalizedmedicinecoalition.org/Userfiles/PMC-Corporate/file/PMC_The_Personalized_Medicine_Report_Opportunity_Challenges_and_the_Future.pdf)
44. Florin MV, Escher G. (2017). A Roadmap For The Development Of Precision Medicine. Lausanne: EPFL International Risk Governance Center (IRGC). (Accessed March 9, 2022, at https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/230179?ln=en)
45. Ginsburg GS, Phillips KA. Precision Medicine: From Science To Value. Health Aff (Millwood) 2018; 37(5): 694-701.
46. McKinsey Company. Precision medicine: Opening the aperture. (Accessed March 9, 2022, at https://www.mckinsey.com/ industries/life-sciences/our-insights/ precision-medicine-opening-the-aperture)
47. World Health Organization. (2021). Global strategy on digital health 2020-2025. World Health Organization. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/344249. License: CC BY-NC-SA 3. 0 IGO
48. Deloitte (2021). Health Care Foresight. Identifying Megatrends. (Accessed March 9, 2022, at https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/sg/Documents/lifesciences-health-care/sg-lshc-healthcare-foresight-megatrends.pdf)
49. HIMSS. Digital Health: A Framework for Healthcare Transformation White Paper. (Accessed January 6, 2022, at https://www.himss.org/resources/digital-healthframework-healthcare-transformation-whitepaper)
50. KMPG (2016). Digital Health: Heaven Or Hell? (Accessed March 9, 2022, at https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2016/03/digital-health-heaven-hell.pdf)
51. Background paper. Overview of megatrends in health and their implications for Australia. (Accessed January 6, 2022, at https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/bca/pages/4096/attachments/original/1527660180/ 4_BCA_Health_megatrends_document_Final.pdf?1527660180)
52. Deloitte (2021). 2021 Global Health Care Outlook: Accelerating industry change (Accessed March 9, 2022, at https://www2.deloitte.com/cn/en/pages/lifesciences-and-healthcare/articles/2021-globalhealthcare-outlook.html)
Send email to the article author

Add your comments about this article
Your username or Email:


XML   Persian Abstract   Print

Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Jorjani M, Moghaddamnia S H, Assadi M, Ghanbari H, Fasihi Harandi M, Nabipour I. Strategies for the Future of Medicine in Iran Based on a Scenario Planning. Iran South Med J. 2022; 25 (1) :50-79
URL: http://ismj.bpums.ac.ir/article-1-1547-en.html

Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Volume 25, Issue 1 (Iranian South Medical Journal 2022) Back to browse issues page
دانشگاه علوم پزشکی بوشهر، طب جنوب ISMJ

Iranian South Medical Journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License which allows users to read,
copy, distribute and make derivative works for non-commercial purposes from the material, as long as the author of the original work is cited properly

Copyright © 2022, Iranian South Medical Journal| All Rights Reserved

Persian site map - English site map - Created in 0.05 seconds with 30 queries by YEKTAWEB 4419